Thursday, April 11, 2013

Silver update

It has been a while since I posted any metals analysis in this blog but, given recent developments, I believe an update is in order.

From December to February, I had posited that silver was likely bottoming with a final diagonal (a-b-c-d-e) and would likely stabilize above $26.10 and begin its explosive FINAL Wave 5 rally thereafter. Given recent developments, however, I believe that I may have been premature in calling for a final low at $26.10... and I am now expecting that silver will experience one more new low (around $22?) in the coming months, before Wave 5 commences.

My reasons for this altered prediction are two-fold:

1) The wave count for silver now appears to preclude a final diagonal and is more likely Wave (A) of a Wave Y double zig-zag (see chart below). The 7 waves down from the $35.44 high indicate that Wave (A) completed at (e) and that we are now in an expanded flat that should rally back up around $30 before Wave (C) of the double zig-zag continues downward to fresh lows.


2) The wave count for Silver Wheaton indicates that the recent decline from $41.04 is in 5 waves, which indicates the completion of Wave (A) in a Wave Y double zig-zag. I now expect SLW to rally sharply upwards to the $32.50-$33 level in a Wave (B) rally and then to decline to a final Wave (C) level below the 2012 low of $22.64.

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