Thursday, January 3, 2013

1/3: Silver update - no Wave (4) bottom just yet

Good morning,

I have posted Daily and Weekly charts of Silver below to give a picture of where I think we are in the Wave (4) consolidation.

First, we look at the Weekly chart of Silver.

This chart shows us several indications of a soon-to-come Wave (4) low:

1) the Silver price is clearly testing both the green downtrending and uptrending support lines drawn...
2) RSI and MACD have been uptrending and confirming over the past year; and
3) a solid base at $26 has already been set with 3 successive lows.

I am still expecting a upward test of the median Bollinger Band around $32.50-$33 in a Wave (d) before we get a final low in a Wave (e)/Y around $28, perhaps in mid to late February.

For a closer look, we now analyze the Daily chart of Silver:

Again, we see how Silver has stabilized three (3) times at the $26 level and has crossed over the downtrending support line only to come down and attempt to re-test the line (coming up slightly short of doing so on the Wave (a) and Wave (c) recent selloffs). If Silver does test the trendline in February, it appears the low would come around $28.

If we do hold support around $28 and start to rally, then I expect that Silver will thereafter embark on an final, explosive Wave (5) of V impulse move to new highs above $50!

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